As part of the week leading up to TwinsFest, Twins Geek will review the moves the Twins made this offseason.
She stomped down the hallway, except this was a new kind of stomping. It wasn’t deliberate and defiant. It was faster, more frantic, with a touch of hopelessness.
“Tough day? What’s wrong?”, the clueless father asked.
“Oh NOTHING”, she spat back. “Just-that-the-WHOLE-class-knows-who-I-was-CRUSHING-on.”
Turns out that The Chatty Chatty Princess™ had told her friend Jennie that she was crushing on BJ and Jennie had told Samantha who for SOME reason had told Jack who had teased her while they were standing in line for dismissal and now he was going to tell EVERYONE which means she was going to be TEASED every day for the rest of HER MISERABLE LIFE. Or something like that. I may or may not have blacked out somewhere in the middle of the explanation. Suffice to say that it was a worst case scenario for everyone involved.
And that includes the clueless dad, who suddenly realized that his nine-year-old daughter
1. has some hidden gills that apparently allow her to speak endlessly without drawing oxygen and
2. is fast approaching the age where there are going to need to be some delicate talks.
The hidden gills didn’t worry me too much – that’s a genetic trait that every female on her mom’s side of the family seems to share. But the second realization does, because it means I’m going to need to make a decision about preaching absolutes versus the truth.
It’s easy to say that that your whole life will spin out of control after that first cigarette or beer or thrillingly awkward intimate moment. It’s also reasonably effective, because these are kids, and scaring the hell out of them for a few years might not be a bad idea. After all, they’ll eventually figure out the truth themselves, right?
That truth is that you will not burst into flame at the first taste of a forbidden fruit. Each bite can, in the right circumstances, be somewhat justified and bring some some real joy. The trick is understanding when you’re getting carried away – when control is slipping and things are getting worse, not better.
Which brings us to Carlos Silva. Silva brought some real joy in 2005 when he posted a 3.44 ERA. (Read that ERA again. Yes, he really was that good.) As he struggled last year, the Twins first refused to give up on him, then moved him to the bullpen, then were forced to rely on him, then thought he was fixed, then toyed with the idea of him starting in the playoffs, then watched him crash and burn a couple of more times just before the playoffs.
It started to become unclear whether they kept sending him to the hill out of necessity or out of stubbornness. Partly it was because they just needed arms as starting pitchers became hurt. But partly it was because he had been so good, but now he wasn’t, and they really just wanted him fixed. When the dust settled, he had started 31 games, mostly because he was a habit that was too hard to break. Given that mindset and the holes in their rotation, picking up his $4 million option was a gimme.
They soon filled another gap in their rotation with a guy who knows a thing or two about bad habits. Sidney Ponson’s success is longer and more sustained than Silva’s. Three years ago, when he was just 26 years old, he threw 216 innings with a 3.75 ERA. Then he signed a big contract, with a large portion of it seemingly paid in trans saturated fats. That was followed by some legal issues, some brought about by alcohol.
His deal with the Twins is structured to mitigate the gamble both sides are taking. It’s a minor league deal, so no money is guaranteed. But if he makes the 40-man roster (not the 25-man roster, but the 40 man roster, meaning he could be pitching in Rochester) he gets $1 million. And he had additional incentives that could raise the deal to $3 million if he helps out the big club. That’s a fantastic contract for the Twins, and showed a level-headed approach for a team that wants to insure it’s young pitching without blocking it by filling up the rotation.
Speaking of filling up the rotation, the Twins finished their free agent shopping by signing Ramon Ortiz last week. Ortiz hasn’t had a defining year like Silva or Ponson. His profile is that of a slightly built pitcher who nonetheless eats a lot of innings. He’s also pereceived as having pretty good “stuff” which can appear for stretches, but he makes too many mistakes that end up over the outfield wall.
If all that sounds familiar, it’s because the Twins have spent the last few years working with a similar pitcher named Kyle Lohse. And like Lohse, the Twins weren’t afraid to commit some money to this project, signing Ortiz to a guaranteed $3 million contract.
Given the state of the Twins starting rotation, none of these are bad moves. Silva may well had struggled in part because he spent last spring pitching for Venezuela. Ponson may get himself back on track, both personally and professionally. And Ortiz’s potential may just need a Rick Anderson to turn into results. None of these contracts is going to cripple the Twins by itself.
But combined, it’s starting to feel like the Twins are losing control – letting their fear of young pitching get the best of them. For starters, they will now pay somewhere between $7-$10 million in 2007 to three projects. The Twins minor leagues are already stocked with pitching projects, and they’re a lot cheaper.
More worrisome is their tendency to anoint veterans roles based on their years of service. Remember last year when Tony Batista signed a minor league deal? The Twins didn’t need to count on Batista to play third base. But Terry Ryan passed on trading for a cut-rate Corey Koskie because he felt an obligation to Batista. And the coaching staff told Michael Cuddyer to leave his infield glove at home. By the time Batista waddled into spring training, the die had already been cast.
But at least Batista wasn’t blocking much in the way of talent at the position. Twins fans may have soured on Scott Baker after last year’s performance, but let’s not forget that he’s still just 25 years old, and he rocketed from college to the majors in under two years. Matt Garza isn’t just the Twins top pitching prospect – he’s among the top pitching prospects in baseball. 24-year-old JD Durbin found his form and posted a 2.33(!) ERA in Rochester last year. If he doesn’t find his way onto the roster, the Twins will just plain lose him, because he’s out of options. Finally, Kevin Slowey kept pace with Garza throughout his meteoric rise through the minors. Most organizations would be trying to find room for him in their rotation over the latter half of 2007. All of which makes it sound a lot like an argument for backing an absolute condemnation of the Twins overhaul of their rotation.
It's not that easy. I don't know exactly the right answer, but I know it isn't the absolute one. The Twins had gaps to fill, and to expect young talent to fill every one would have been foolhardy. But with up to $10 million dollars and 60% of the rotation committed to similarly profiled pitchers, their strategy is looking less like measured decisions, and a little too much like a club that is falling into some bad habits.
Tomorrow: How to kill a whole flock with a stone.
Twins Geek is the editor and part-owner of GameDay, the independent baseball program sold outside of Twins games. The Twins, in the spirit of baseball, have let them into the Metrodome for this weekend. So while he invites your comments below, he’d love to debate in person this weekend at the GameDay booth.
Posted by Twins Geek at January 22, 2007 11:49 PM